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Last season, four rookies saw substantial playing time for the Blazers: Greg Oden, Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez and Nicolas Batum. With sophomore slumps being somewhat common occurrence in the NBA, one of them is bound to stumble out of the gates this season. In this post I attempt to discern just who that will be.

Greg Oden

This section initially started with a with a rundown of Greg's unfortunate NBA beginnings, it's been covered ad nauseum and I scrapped it. If you need catching up, it's out there somewhere.

Greg showed flashes of brilliance here and there, but mainly just looked nervous, flustered and lost. Most of his troubles can be traced back to getting injured right out of the blocks; which nullified all his preseason conditioning and axed what little confidence he had.

Offensively, Greg never looked comfortable. His jump hook was ghastly… Did he make more than 5 all season? He was at his best when he was cleaning up via offensive rebounds or when he got the ball with a running start and was able to attack the rim (who's going to get in this way?). That said, offense has never been the priority with Greg. The Blazers drafted him for his defensive potential.  His role is controlling the paint: rebounding, altering and blocking shots. He's certainly big and strong enough to hang with anyone. Over short spurts, Greg held his own with the best the NBA has to offer in the middle.

Overall, he struggled with confidence and week side help timing. His sometimes meek body language and lack of commitment didn't earn him any help from David Stern's Yes-Men the NBA refs.

At the end of the day, it's up to Greg. Will he put in the time and effort required? His problems are correctable and in his case, the tools inherent. An off season's worth of hard work to bolster his game and confidence paired with a healthy start to the 09-10 season should be all Greg needs to dominate.

Jerryd, Rudy and Nicolas after the break…

Jerryd Bayless

After dominating 1 on 1 league summer league last year, he was looking a lot like the final piece of the Blazer's championship puzzle. And then team basketball happened.

It's clear that Jerryd's a great athlete, but aside from Jerryd's strength, stubby arms and low center of gravity, he didn't bring much to the table last season. He learned the hard way that a point guard that cant shoot a set shot or pass is a hindrance, or in his  case: 3^rd string PG.

Game planning against somebody so one-dimensional is easy:

Can he shoot? Not really.

Can he pass? No.

He can drive? Yeah, he's got that down.

We'll just sag off. Okay.

…And Jerryd's been neutralized. That took me all of 15 seconds.

The good news: Sergio's been thrown away and there's nobody but Jerryd around to inherit his minutes. Jerryd's shortcomings were identified early on last season. He's had over a year to focus on becoming a guy that can help his teammates. Hopefully, he spent his time the working on a spot up jumper, improving his passing and developing a sense of team basketball. If he's figured out those facets of the game come the end of October… he'll be deadly.

Rudy Fernandez

Like teammate Greg Oden, Rudy spent a season on ice before becoming a Blazer, playing out his contract for the ACB league's DKV Joventut. Blazer and NBA fans alike spent a year watching Rudy play on live streams and marveling over his Youtube compilations. He was a fan favorite long before he ever donned a Blazer jersey.

With the loss of Martell Webster, Portland was in dire need of a reliable outside threat to keep defenders honest. Rudy stepped in and filled that void immediately. He set a rookie record knocking down 159 three point field goals, another one for making a three in his first 20 NBA games and a third for connecting from deep in 33 consecutive. Rudy's penchant for backdoor cuts and fantastic hybrid layup/dunk finishes got him written into the 2009 NBA dunk contest. Unfortunately, the script didn't have him going past the first round.

He did well from beyond the arc and at the rim. Where did he fall short? Almost everywhere else. His average ball handling skills combined with his lack of strength made creating his own shot difficult against bigger and stronger players. His mid range game was nonexistent.

It won't be easy for Rudy to match and/or exceed his production after setting the bar so high. Can he maintain his high level of shooting from beyond the arc? What kind of drop off in minutes will he see with Martell's return? Can he add a couple more offensive arrows to his quiver?

If given the minutes, Rudy will produce; doing his damage by creating turnovers and scoring in transition, or burning teams from distance. Improving his strength, ball handling and mid range jumper would be enough for Rudy to take his game to the next level.

Nicolas Batum

After Nicolas' poor performance in summer league last year, many wondered if he would ever be a legitimate NBA player. KP's then impeccably clean draft history was beggining to look like it had acquired it's first blemish. Two months later he's our starting small forward. Turns out that his combination of his size, length and speed made Nicolas a 19 year old defensive specialist.

With Martell Webster out with an injury, Nicolas drew all the arduous defensive back court assignments. He stood toe to toe with the NBA's marquee names: Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and even checked the lightening fast Tony Parker.

Last season, his defensive presence was enough for him to start the1st and 3^rd quarters, but not enough for him to ever reenter after being sat down. In order to get back into games, Nicolas must force defenders to respect him as an offensive threat; knocking down open jumpers and attacking the basket off the dribble.

The biggest hurdle for Nicolas next season is minutes. With the return of Martell, there's a biblical logjam at SF (Rudy, Travis, Martell and Nicolas). He'll be competing directly for the starting spot with Martell.

The 4 players ranked in order of sophomore slump likeliness:

1. Nicolas Batum
2. Rudy Fernandez
3. Jerryd Bayless
4. Greg Oden

With so much talent at the SF position, it comes down to who earns the minutes.  While it might prove to be a little frustrating for the players that end up at the bottom of the depth chart, the competition at SF is fantastic for Portland.

You can contact Andy Popp at either andypopp@gmail.com or BlazersPipeline on Twitter. When he's not at PDX Pipeline, you can find him at lowposts.com.