Portland Timbers Tuesday: Timbers Go Moneyball In Expansion Draft

November 30, 2010 — PDXPIPELINE

By Ben Golliver

Photo by Meredith Rider

Portland Timbers Tuesday: Timbers Go Moneyball In Expansion Draft

The Portland Timbers had a whirlwind MLS Expansion draft last week, making a number of moves that left observers somewhat flummoxed. Trading away the No. 1 overall pick Dax McCarty? Drafting two players — Robbie Findley and Jonathan Bornstein — who aren't likely to play in the USA next season? What gives?

Having no real opinion of Timbers general manager Gavin Wilkinson and coach John Spencer entering the draft, I left impressed with their long-term vision and foundational strategy. Building a professional sports roster from scratch is way more difficult than it might appear at first glance. Unless you're blessed with an ownership group to whom money isn't an object, you're generally forced down one of two paths: maximize value and accumulate assets, or swing for the fences on aging household names.

Until the opening day roster is finalized, we won't know for sure what role chasing name players will play in Portland's strategy, but early indications are that Wilkinson and Spencer are proceeding along the asset maximization path very thoughtfully. When you're going from nothing to top flight competition, quantity of assets can be just as important as any individual player. With that in mind, the Timbers were able to swing two smart trades, turning McCarty into a player plus a MLS SuperDraft pick and turning Anthony Wallace into financial considerations. You simply cannot have too many picks and money in this position, as the two represent flexibility, perhaps the highest ideal of roster building behind talent acquisition.

In addition to increasing flexibility with the picks and cash, the Timbers addressed their back line, which, as we noted back in October, is the place you generally want to build from. The Timbers roster now includes five defenders age 25 or younger. Again, quantity is important. Eventually, you want to see a clear starting lineup emerge, but it's better to have depth and a competitive training atmosphere early on, or the ability to use players as trade assets.

Even the Findley and Bornstein picks are smart, calculated risks. Who knows what might happen in their respective soccer futures, and Portland placed itself as their fallback option. Given their talent ceiling, the risk/reward, given that they were selected in the Expansion Draft's later rounds, was a no-brainer.

Overall, the Timbers played a shrewd Moneyball-style game last week, coming out the better for it. While the overall strategy puts more pressure on the team's management to land a big fish from overseas, they sounded comfortable with that thought. "We've looked overseas for a quality central midfielder and we think we've found the perfect person. We're trying to acquire that individual now," Wilkinson told ProstAmerika.com.

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———-Ben Golliver

Ben Golliver is a freelance writer, native Oregonian and avid follower of the Timbers.Ãƒâ€š He edits Blazersedge, co-hostsÃƒâ€š The Dontonio Wingcast and regularly contributes toÃƒâ€š SB Nation. Follow him onTwitter.